~Blue+dot/$FILE/bluedot.gif)
NEW JOURNAL ARTICLES
The new journal article list is produced monthly by EMA Library and is listed alphabetically by title. It features a selection of journal articles added to the library catalogue during the previous month. To receive an email alert when the latest list is published, please contact ema.library@ema.gov.au.
To request a copy of an article, just send us an email and we will post you a photocopy:
Send an email to: ema.library@ema.gov.au. For more information phone (03) 5421 5246.
Please note - due to the popularity of this service, the following conditions apply:
1. A maximum of ten articles per day can be requested.
2. In line with copyright regulations, only one article per journal issue can be requested per week.
October 2008 New Article List
An adaptive regional input-output model and its application to the assessment of the economic cost of Katrina
Author: Hallegatte, Stephane
Risk Analysis, an international journal, Vol.28, No.3, June 2008, pp.779-799.
This article proposes a new modeling framework to investigate the consequences of natural disasters and the following reconstruction phase. Based on input-output tables, its originalities are (1) the taking into account of sector production capacities and of both forward and backward propagations within the economic system; and (2) the introduction of adaptive behaviors. The model is used to simulate the response of the economy of Louisiana to the landfall of Katrina. The model is found consistent with available data, and provides two important insights. First, economic processes exacerbate direct losses, and total costs are estimated at $149 billion, for direct losses equal to $107 billion. When exploring the impacts of other possible disasters, it is found that total losses due to a disaster affecting Louisiana increase nonlinearly with respect to direct losses when the latter exceed $50 billion. When direct losses exceed $200 billion, for instance, total losses are twice as large as direct losses. For risk management, therefore, direct losses are insufficient measures of disaster consequences. Second, positive and negative backward propagation mechanisms are essential for the assessment of disaster consequences, and the taking into account of production capacities is necessary to avoid overestimating the positive effects of reconstruction. A systematic sensitivity analysis shows that, among all parameters, the overproduction capacity in the construction sector and the adaptation characteristic time are the most important.
Comparison of the expectations of residents and rescue providers of community emergency medical response after mudslide disasters
Author: Lam, Carlos
Disasters, the journal of disaster studies, policy and management, Vol.31, No.4, December 2007, pp.405-416.
The integration of community resources is critical for emergency response. A thorough understanding of a community's requirements in advance is essential. This study examines communities that suffered mudslide disasters, and discusses expectations of the emergency medical response provided to the community from the perspectives of residents and rescue groups. The questionnaire used in the study was designed to adopt the Likert Scale for quantification purposes. Its content was divided into six categories based on emergency response. Both residents and rescue providers acknowledged that finance and reimbursement were the highest priority. Public information was regarded as the least important by both groups. Significant differences existed between the groups on patient care activities and supportive activities (P = 0.02 and 0.03, respectively), which were more appreciated by residents. We conclude that residents had higher expectations of evacuation, temporary relocation, lodging, food, and sanitary management than the rescue groups.
Designing new institutions for implementing integrated disaster risk management key elements and future directions.
Author: Gopalakrishnan, Chennat
Disasters, the journal of disaster studies, policy and management, Vol.31, No.4, December 2007, pp.353-372.
The goal of integrated disaster risk management is to promote an overall improvement in the quality of safety and security in a region, city or community at disaster risk. This paper presents the case for a thorough overhaul of the institutional component of integrated disaster risk management. A review of disaster management institutions in the United States indicates significant weaknesses in their ability to contribute effectively to the implementation of integrated disaster risk management. Our analysis and findings identify eight key elements for the design of dynamic new disaster management institutions. Six specific approaches are suggested for incorporating the identified key elements in building new institutions that would have significant potential for enhancing the effective implementation of integrated disaster risk management. We have developed a possible blueprint for effective design and construction of efficient, sustainable and functional disaster management institutions.
Development of the Lower Sacramento Valley flood-control system historical perspective.
Author: James, L. Allan
Natural Hazards Review, Vol.9, no.3, August 2008, pp.125-135.
Natural physical conditions and the politics of flood management provide the historical context for structural flood control that underlies modern flood hazards in the Sacramento Valley. The valley is a broad, low pain with backswamp basins that were frequently inundated prior to Anglo-American settlement, continuing until the modern flood-control system was established. Sedimentation from mining led to a flood-control design that relied on levees with narrow cross-channel spacings to promote channel scour and facilitate navigation. Even without sedimentation , floods were not contained within channels, but were largely conveyed through a system of low-land basins. In the early twentieth-century, an innovative channel bypass system was adopted that emulates the natural system by routing excess flood waters over a series of weirs and through broad, c hannelized bypasses that cross the basins. This system has been successful in reducing the extent of frequent inundations of broad lowland areas of the valley. It is in need of maintenance and improvement, however, and cannot eliminate the risk of future flooding in low areas behind levees that are being rapidly developed.
Earthquake survivors' quality of life and academic achievement six years after the earthquakes in Marmara, Turkey
Author: Ceyhan, Esra
Disasters, the journal of disaster studies, policy and management, Vol.31, No.4, December 2007, pp.516-529.
This study investigates the quality of life (QOL) and academic achievement of earthquake survivors six years after the earthquakes in Marmara, Turkey. Data were collected from 407 Turkish university students. Of these, 201 were earthquake survivors and 206 had not been exposed to an earthquake. The Turkish adaptation of the brief version of the World Health Organisation's QOL instrument (WHOQOL-BREF, TR) was used to measure QOL. The results reveal that the earthquake survivors' psychological and environmental domains of QOL and academic achievement were significantly lower than those of individuals not exposed to an earthquake. The results also highlight the risk factors that affect the QOL of the earthquake survivors significantly. These are their gender, their age at the time of earthquake and the continued existence of financial difficulties linked to the earthquakes.
Effects of the tsunami on fisheries and coastal livelihood a case study of tsunami-ravaged southern Sri Lanka.
Author: De Silva, D. A. M.
Disasters, the journal of disaster studies, policy and management, Vol.31, No.4, December 2007, pp.386-404.
Beyond the death toll, the tsunami of 26 December 2004 crippled many of the livelihood assets (human, social, physical, financial and natural) available to assist those directly affected. Drawing on surveys of three villages in three districts in the south of Sri Lanka, this paper describes the livelihood asset building capacity of the fishing communities. Assessments are also made of the impact of the tsunami on coastal communities and the impact of government policy on rebuilding. A livelihood asset score was calculated for each village by comparing their strengths in capacity building. In all aspects of capital building, including human, social, financial, physical and natural capital, the fishing community in Tangalle was significantly ahead of the fishing communities in Hikkaduwa and Weligama. Experienced fishermen with better educational backgrounds had a significant influence on the capacity building of livelihood assets. Relocation and resettlement plans brought persistent uncertainty to fishermen in Hikkaduwa and Weligama and threatened to disrupt their community bonds and social networks.
Enhancing community-based disaster preparedness with information technology
Author: Troy, Douglas A.
Disasters, the journal of disaster studies, policy and management, Vol.32, No.1, March 2008, pp.149-165.
A critical component of community-based disaster preparedness (CBDP) is a local resource database of suppliers providing physical, information and human resources for use in disaster response. Maintenance of such a database can become a collaborative responsibility among community-based non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and public and private community organisations. In addition to mobilising resources, this process raises awareness within the community and aids in assessing local knowledge and resources. This paper presents the results of a pilot study on implementing a community-based resource database through collaboration with local American Red Cross chapters and public and private community organisations. The design of the resource database is described. The resource database is accessible via the internet and offline using laptops and handheld Personal Digital Assistants. The study concludes that CBDP is strengthened through a combination of appropriate information technology and collaborative relationships between NGOs and community-based organisations.
Flood hazards in the central valley of California
Author: James, L. Allan
Natural Hazards Review, Vol.9, no.3, August 2008, pp.101-103.
An introduction to a special issue devoted flood hazards in the central valley of California. The introduction provides a description of flood hazard policies, how they apply in the central valley, recent structural and legislative changes that influence flood hazards and policy in the region, and an outline of the six papers published in this issue.
Floods of people new residential development into flood-prone areas in San Joaquin County, California
Author: Fridirici, Roxane
Natural Hazards Review, Vol.9, no.3, August 2008, pp.158-168.
The proximity of San Joaquin County, California to the San Francisco Bay Area has made it one of the most rapidly growing areas in the state. Several factors have encouraged seemingly illogical new residential development in known flood-prone areas. New residents chose to focus on housing prices and amenities, and seldom recognize potential flood hazards even when surrounded by levees. Communities, anticipating increased populations and broadened tax bases, are reluctant to press flood hazard issues. Recently, the State of California has pressed for systematic levee improvements and is shifting fiscal responsibility for flood damage to local governments. Recent housing market downturns may provide an opportunity to enhance flood plain management and public awareness. Together, these changes may encourage a more realistic attitude about flood hazards in siting new residential developments.
Fuzzy risks and an updating algorithm with new observations
Author: Huang, Chongfu 1958-
Risk Analysis, an international journal, Vol.28, No.3, June 2008, pp.681-694.
Concerning the essence of risk, we suggest a new definition of risk: a scene in the future associated with some adverse incident. In many cases, risks are rather fuzzy for our perception because of the shortage of knowledge or information about the systems that determine the adverse incidents. We introduce a concept of fuzzy risk based on the new risk definition and fuzzy sets. And, in this article, we suggest a fuzzy average algorithm to update a fuzzy risk that stores all information from the original data. To illustrate the algorithm, we update a soft risk map of flood where the fuzzy risks are calculated using the interior-outer-set model.
Geomorphic influence on flood hazards in a lowland fluvial-tidal transitional area, Central Valley, California.
Author: Florsheim, Joan L.
Natural Hazards Review, Vol.9, no.3, August 2008, pp.116-124.
Geomorphic processes influence flood hazards in the lowland fluvial-tidal transition area near the Cosumnes River-Dry Creek-Mokelumne River confluence, Central Valley, California. Anthropogenic changes in the inherently flood-prone floodplain, flood basin, and Delta Island landscape increase flood hazards. Levee construction and flow regulation influence floods, increasing risks in both agricultural and rapidly urbanizing areas. Effective flood management requires a landscape scale approach that addresses both fluvial and tidal process and that accommodates current and potentially higher future flood magnitudes and sea levels.
How do disaster characteristics influence risk perception?
Author: He, Mingzhou
Risk Analysis, an international journal, Vol.28, No.3, June 2008, pp.635-643.
The main purpose of this study is to examine how risk perception is influenced by the type of disaster (flood or landslide) and victim characteristics. The data reported here are based on the National Risk Perception Survey (NRPS) that was administered for the victims and the general public in Taiwan in 2004. In that year, many towns in Taiwan were seriously affected by floods and landslides, resulting in huge economic losses and fatalities. The primary findings are: (1) the victims and the general public are concerned about the different potential hazards that might affect their residential area, (2) the negative associations between the sense of controllability and the perceived impact is high for landslide victims, but not for flood victims, and (3) disaster type, gender, and previously experienced disasters are good predictors of victims' attitudes toward natural disasters.
Hurrican Katrina and lessons learned utilization : important findings for the emergency management community.
Author: McCormick, Lindsey
Journal of Emergency Management, Vol.6, No.3, May/June 2008, pp.39-44.
Hurricane Katrina revealed several lessons learned for the emergency management community. This study was conducted to determine common lessons learned from Katrina and how emergency managers in hurricane prone areas were utilizing them. The study attempted to determine if and how the emergency management community is using the lessons learned from Katrina, if at all. The author concludes with some important findings for the emergency management community. The survey results are valuable to emergency managers in the sense that utilizing lessons learned from previous disasters of all types can lead to more effective planning and responding to future disasters. Effective emergency planning or managing effective responses in disasters saves peoples’ money and most important, peoples’ lives. Key words: Hurricane Katrina, lessons learned, emergency management, survey.
Hurricane Katrina disaster diplomacy
Author: Kelman, Ilan
Disasters, the journal of disaster studies, policy and management, Vol.31, No.3, September 2007, pp.288-309.
Hurricane Katrina struck the United States at the end of August 2005. The consequent devastation appeared to be beyond the US government's ability to cope with and aid was offered by several states in varying degrees of conflict with the US. Hurricane Katrina therefore became a potential case study for 'disaster diplomacy', which examines how disaster-related activities do and do not yield diplomatic gains. A review of past disaster diplomacy work is provided. The literature's case studies are then categorised using a new typology: propinquity, aid relationship, level and purpose. Hurricane Katrina and its aftermath are then placed in the context of the US government's foreign policy, the international response to the disaster and the US government's reaction to these responses. The evidence presented is used to discuss the potential implications of Hurricane Katrina disaster diplomacy, indicating that factors other than disaster-related activities generally dominate diplomatic relations and foreign policy.
Identifying the impact of the built environment on flood damage in Texas
Author: Brody, Samuel D.
Disasters, the journal of disaster studies, policy and management, Vol.32, No.1, March 2008, pp.1-18.
Floods continue to pose the greatest threat to the property and safety of human communities among all natural hazards in the United States. This study examines the relationship between the built environment and flood impacts in Texas, which consistently sustains the most damage from flooding of any other state in the country. Specifically, we calculate property damage resulting from 423 flood events between 1997 and 2001 at the county level. We identify the effect of several built environment measures, including wetland alteration, impervious surface, and dams on reported property damage while controlling for biophysical and socio-economic characteristics. Statistical results suggest that naturally occurring wetlands play a particularly important role in mitigating flood damage. These findings provide guidance to planners and flood managers on how to alleviate most effectively the costly impacts of foods at the community level.
Immediate and long-term assistance following the bombing of the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania
Author: Abdallah, Saade
Disasters, the journal of disaster studies, policy and management, Vol.31, No.4, December 2007, pp.417-434.
On 7 August 1998 truck bombs destroyed the US Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. The response in both countries was characterised by an absence of incident command, limited pre-hospital care, a disorganised hospital response and a lack of transportation for those injured. In the next five years USD 50 million was provided by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) to alleviate the resulting suffering, support reconstruction and strengthen disaster preparedness capacity in the two countries. These two programmes have enhanced awareness of disaster management issues, improved training capacity, built response structures and provided material resources. Their design and implementation provide lessons for future disasters in developing countries. The assistance programmes evolved very differently. In Kenya the programme largely excluded the public sector and the potential for government coordination, while the Tanzanian programme concentrated heavily on central government and regional hospital structures-largely omitting the non-governmental or civil society sector. Excluding key stakeholders raises concerns about programme sustainability and the ability to respond effectively to future emergencies.
Impediments to recovery in New Orleans' upper and lower ninth ward one year after Hurrican Katrina
Author: Green, Rebekah
Disasters, the journal of disaster studies, policy and management, Vol.31, No.4, December 2007, pp.311-335
In the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, a rapid succession of plans put forward a host of recovery options for the Upper and Lower Ninth Ward in New Orleans. Much of the debate focused on catastrophic damage to residential structures and discussions of the capacity of low-income residents to repair their neighbourhoods. This article examines impediments to the current recovery process of the Upper and Lower Ninth Ward, reporting results of an October 2006 survey of 3,211 plots for structural damage, flood damage and post-storm recovery. By examining recovery one year after Hurricane Katrina, and by doing so in the light of flood and structural damage, it is possible to identify impediments to recovery that may disproportionately affect these neighbourhoods. This paper concludes with a discussion of how pre- and post-disaster inequalities have slowed recovery in the Lower Ninth Ward and of the implications this has for post-disaster recovery planning there and elsewhere.
Information technologies and the sharing of disaster knowledge : the critical role of professional culture
Author: Marincioni, Fausto
Disasters, the journal of disaster studies, policy and management, Vol.31, No.4, December 2007, pp.459-476.
A comparative survey of a diverse sample of 96 US and Italian emergency management agencies shows that the diffusion of new information technologies (IT) has transformed disaster communications. Although these technologies permit access to and the dissemination of massive amounts of disaster information with unprecedented speed and efficiency, barriers rooted in the various professional cultures still hinder the sharing of disaster knowledge. To be effective the available IT must be attuned to the unique settings and professional cultures of the local emergency management communities. Findings show that available technology, context, professional culture and interaction are key factors that affect the knowledge transfer process. Cultural filters appear to influence emergency managers' perceptions of their own professional roles, their vision of the applicability of technology to social issues, and their perspective on the transferability of disaster knowledge. Four cultural approaches to the application of IT to disaster communications are defined: technocentric; geographic; anthropocentric; and ecocentric.
Learning from others : the scope and challenges for participatory disaster risk assessment
Author: Pelling, Mark
Disasters, the journal of disaster studies, policy and management, Vol.31, No.4, December 2007, pp.373-385.
This paper develops a framework based on procedural, methodological and ideological elements of participatory vulnerability and risk assessment tools for placing individual approaches within the wide range of work that claims a participatory, local or community orientation. In so doing it draws on relevant experience from other areas of development practice from which the disasters field can learn. Participatory disaster risk assessments are examined for their potential to be empowering, to generate knowledge, to be scaled up, to be a vehicle for negotiating local change and as part of multiple-methods approaches to disaster risk identification and reduction. The paper is a response to an international workshop on Community Risk Assessment organised by ProVention Consortium and the Disaster Mitigation for Sustainable Livelihoods Programme, University of Cape Town. The workshop brought together practitioners and academics to review the challenges and opportunities for participatory methodologies in the field of disaster risk reduction. In conclusion the contribution made by participatory methodologies to global disaster risk reduction assessment and policy is discussed.
Levee failures and social vulnerability in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Area, California
Author: Burton, Christopher
Natural Hazards Review, Vol.9, no.3, August 2008, pp.136-149.
This paper examines the spatial variability in the social vulnerability of residents to potential levee failures in the Sacramento Delta region. To determine the likely flood exposure, levees of concern to the U.s. Army Corps of Engineers and California's Department of Water Resources were mapped. The HAZUS-MH loss estimation software and 100-year protection standard were used to hypothetically breach levees to determine a coarse approximation of the level and spatial extent of inundation. To assess the differential social consequences of such an event, a social vulnerability index was computed at the census tract level for San Joaquin, Sacramento, and Yolo counties following the vulnerability metrics developed by Cutter et al. in 2003. When integrated with the flood exposure data, there is a clustering of high social vulnerability zones within high risk flood areas. While the spatial pattern is not uniform throughout the tricounty area, these pockets of high vulnerability (largely driven by social factors) warrant management concern about the disproportionate impact of catastrophic levee failures on these failures on these populations and the level of local, state, and federal preparedness to cope with such an event.
Livin' large with levees lessons learned and lost
Author: Montz, Burrell E.
Natural Hazards Review, Vol.9, no.3, August 2008, pp.150-157.
The use of levees for flood control has a long history in the United States in part because their relatively low construction costs and general effectiveness in protecting low-lying areas are politically expedient. However, levees can also promote floodplain development, placing more property at risk, and they have negative hydrological and environmental consequences. In addition, failures occur when design standards are exceeded or because of poor maintenance. Recognizing these limitations, the Association of State Floodplain Managers has issued 25 recommendations regarding the use of levees, three of which are evaluated here in the context of Yuba County, California. Yuba county has permitted several new residential areas in flood-prone land, in anticipation of levee certification. The county's levee strategy demonstrates the county is going beyond what is currently required for official certification of its levees. Howerer, it is cleas that additional measures need to be taken in order for the risk to be fully acknowledged and managed.
Managing volunteers : FEMA's Urban Search and Rescue programme and interactions with unaffiliated responders in disaster response
Author: Barsky, Lauren E.
Disasters, the journal of disaster studies, policy and management, Vol.31, No.4, December 2007, pp.495-507.
In the aftermath of disasters it is not uncommon for a large number of individuals, ranging from professional technical responders to untrained, albeit well meaning, volunteers, to converge on site of a disaster in order to offer to help victims or other responders. Because volunteers can be both a help and a hindrance in disaster response, they pose a paradox to professional responders at the scene. Through focus group interviews and in-depth structured interviews, this paper presents an extended example of how Urban Search and Rescue (US&R) task forces, a type of professional technical-responder organisation, interact with and utilise volunteers. Findings show that US&R task forces evaluate the volunteers in terms of their presumed legitimacy, utility, and potential liability or danger posed during the disaster response. Other responses to volunteers such as a feeling of powerlessness or the use of volunteers in non-technical ways are also explored. This paper demonstrates some key aspects of the relationship between volunteers and formal response organisations in disasters.
Measuring revealed and emergent vulnerabilities of coastal communities to tsunami in Sri Lanka
Author: Birkmann, Jorn
Disasters, the journal of disaster studies, policy and management, Vol.32, No.1, March 2008, pp.82-105.
This paper presents the important findings of a study undertaken in two selected tsunami-affected coastal cities in Sri Lanka (Batticaloa and Galle) to measure the revealed and emergent vulnerability of coastal communities. International risk studies have failed to demonstrate the high vulnerability of coastal communities to tsunami in Sri Lanka. Therefore, indirect assessment tools to measure pre-event vulnerability have to be complemented by assessment tools that analyse revealed and emergent vulnerability in looking at the aftermath and impact patterns of a real scenario, as well as in examining the dynamics of disaster recovery in which different vulnerabilities can be identified. The paper first presents a conceptual framework for capturing vulnerability within a process-oriented approach linked to sustainable development. Next, it highlights selected indicators and methods to measure revealed and emergent vulnerability at the local level using the examples of Batticaloa and Galle. Finally, it discusses the usefulness and application of vulnerability indicators within the framework of reconstruction.
Mechanistic modeling of emergency events : assessing the impact of hypothetical releases of anthrax.
Author: Isukapalli, S. S.
Risk Analysis, an international journal, Vol.28, No.3, June 2008, pp.723-740.
A modular system for source-to-dose-to-effect modeling analysis has been developed based on the modeling environment for total risk studies (MENTOR),( 1) and applied to study the impacts of hypothetical atmospheric releases of anthrax spores. The system, MENTOR-2E (MENTOR for Emergency Events), provides mechanistically consistent analysis of inhalation exposures for various release scenarios, while allowing consideration of specific susceptible subpopulations (such as the elderly) at the resolution of individual census tracts. The MENTOR-2E application presented here includes atmospheric dispersion modeling, statistically representative samples of individuals along with corresponding activity patterns, and population-based dosimetry modeling that accounts for activity and physiological variability. Two hypothetical release scenarios were simulated: a 100 g release of weaponized B. anthracis over a period of (a) one hour and (b) 10 hours, and the impact of these releases on population in the State of New Jersey was studied. Results were compared with those from simplified modeling of population dynamics (location, activities, etc.), and atmospheric dispersion of anthrax spores. The comparisons showed that in the two release scenarios simulated, each major approximation resulted in an overestimation of the number of probable infections by a factor of 5 to 10; these overestimations can have significant public health implications when preparing for and responding effectively to an actual release. This is in addition to uncertainties in dose-response modeling, which result in an additional factor of 5 to 10 variation in estimated casualties. The MENTOR-2E system has been developed in a modular fashion so that improvements in individual modules can be readily made without impacting the other modules, and provides a first step toward the development of models that can be used in supporting real-time decision making.
Natural hazards and motivation for mitigation behaviour : people cannot predict the affect evoked by a severe flood.
Author: Siegrist, Michael
Risk Analysis, an international journal, Vol.28, No.3, June 2008, pp.771-778.
Past research indicates that personal flood experience is an important factor in motivating mitigation behavior. It is not fully clear, however, why such experience is so important. This study tested the hypothesis that people without flooding experience underestimate the negative affect evoked by such an event. People who were affected by a severe recent flood disaster were compared with people who were not affected, but who also lived in flood-prone areas. Face-to-face interviews with open and closed questions were conducted (n= 201). Results suggest that people without flood experience envisaged the consequences of a flood differently from people who had actually experienced severe losses due to a flood. People who were not affected strongly underestimated the negative affect associated with a flood. Based on the results, it can be concluded that risk communication must not focus solely on technical aspects; in order to trigger motivation for mitigation behavior, successful communication must also help people to envisage the negative emotional consequences of natural disasters.
Operation Child-ID : reunifying children with their legal guardians after Hurricane Katrina
Author: Brandenburg, Mark A.
Disasters, the journal of disaster studies, policy and management, Vol.31, No.3, September 2007, pp.277-287.
Children constitute a vulnerable population and special considerations are necessary in order to provide proper care for them during disasters. After disasters such as Hurricane Katrina, the rapid identification and protection of separated children and their reunification with legal guardians is necessary in order to minimise secondary injuries (i.e. physical and sexual abuse, neglect and abduction). At Camp Gruber, an Oklahoma shelter for Louisianans displaced by Hurricane Katrina, a survey tool was used to identify children separated from their guardians. Of the 254 children at the camp, 36 (14.2 per cent) were separated from their legal guardians. Answering 'no' to the question of whether the accompanying adult was the guardian of the child prior to Hurricane Katrina was a strong predictor (27.8 per cent versus 3.2 per cent) of being listed as 'missing' by the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children (NCMEC). All the children at Camp Gruber who were listed as 'missing' by the NCMEC were subsequently reunited with their guardians.
Optimal resource allocation for defense of targets based on differing measures of attractiveness
Author: Bier, Vicki M.
Risk Analysis, an international journal, Vol.28, No.3, June 2008, pp.763-778.
This article describes the results of applying a rigorous computational model to the problem of the optimal defensive resource allocation among potential terrorist targets. In particular, our study explores how the optimal budget allocation depends on the cost effectiveness of security investments, the defender's valuations of the various targets, and the extent of the defender's uncertainty about the attacker's target valuations. We use expected property damage, expected fatalities, and two metrics of critical infrastructure (airports and bridges) as our measures of target attractiveness. Our results show that the cost effectiveness of security investment has a large impact on the optimal budget allocation. Also, different measures of target attractiveness yield different optimal budget allocations, emphasizing the importance of developing more realistic terrorist objective functions for use in budget allocation decisions for homeland security.
Practice-specific risk perceptions and self-reported food safety practices
Author: Levy, Alan S.
Risk Analysis, an international journal, Vol.28, No.3, June 2008, pp.749-761.
The relationship between risk perception and risk avoidance is typically analyzed using self-reported measures. However, in domains such as driving or food handling, the validity of responses about usual behavior is threatened because people think about the situations in which they are self-aware, such as when they encounter a hazard. Indeed, researchers have often noted a divergence between what people say about their behavior and how they actually behave. Thus, in order to draw conclusions about risk perceptions and risk avoidance from survey data, it is important to identify particular cognitive elements, such as those measured by questions about risk and safety knowledge, risk perceptions, or information search behavior, which may be effective antecedents of self-reported safety behavior. It is also important to identify and correct for potential sources of bias that may exist in the data. The authors analyze the Food and Drug Administration's 1998 Food Safety Survey to determine whether there are consistent cognitive antecedents for three types of safe food practices: preparation, eating, and cooling of foods. An assessment of measurement biases shows that endogeneity of food choices affects reports of food preparation. In addition, response bias affects reports of cooling practices as evidenced by its relation to knowledge and information search, a pattern of cognitive effects unique to cooling practices. After correcting for these biases, results show that practice-specific risk perceptions are the primary cognitive antecedents of safe food behavior, which has implications for the design of effective education messages about food safety.
Preventive health behavior and adaptive accuracy of risk perceptions
Author: Renner, Britta
Risk Analysis, an international journal, Vol.28, No.3, June 2008, pp.741-748.
This study examined the relation between health behavior and risk perceptions in the context of an acute livestock epidemic. Participants in a longitudinal web-based survey (N= 195) were asked to report their meat consumption and their perceived risk in relation to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and other related livestock diseases. Cross-sectional analyses at both measurement points (T1 and T2) showed that participants with low levels of preventive nutrition (high meat consumption) felt more at risk for BSE-related diseases than those reporting comparable higher levels of preventive behavior (low meat consumption), indicating relative accuracy. These results suggest that people recognize when their behavior is risky. More importantly, perceived risk also showed adaptive accuracy from a change perspective: increases in preventive nutrition from T1 to T2 were significantly associated with decreases in perceived risk between T1 and T2. Possible foundations and implications of an adaptive accuracy of risk perceptions are discussed
Protecting cultural assets from bushfires : a question of comprehensive planning
Author: Laidlaw, Prue
Disasters, the journal of disaster studies, policy and management, Vol.32, No.1, March 2008, pp.66-81.
Cultural heritage sites form an unrenewable asset that is threatened by natural disasters. Given the high bushfire risk, mandatory Bush Fire Risk Management Plans have been drawn up throughout New South Wales, Australia. We compared their mandatory provisions for the protection of heritage assets with an'Ideal Heritage Disaster Plan', containing a series of non-negotiable elements. The examined plans fell well short of the ideal. Preparedness Plans generally lacked a discussion of suppression techniques (for historic heritage), prevention, prescribed drills and communication procedures. None of the Response Plans or Recovery Plans contained any of the required core elements, such as rapid suppression techniques and stabilisation procedures. Where aspects were covered, they were addressed in an inadequate level of detail. The overall quality of the cultural heritage components of the plans is judged to be poor. Suggestions are made on how to improve the situation if heritage assets are to have a future following bushfire events.
Protecting the functionality of airports during disaster responses humanitarian responses to terrorism war, civil war, and riots.
Author: Smith, James Fielding
Journal of Emergency Management, Vol.6, No.3, May/June 2008, pp.53-62.
The response to almost any disaster has major roles for airports that carry out many or all the functions in an incident management system or act as key assets (emergency support functions). Disaster response itself stresses airports and should require protective measures that may be policy, organizational, operational, physical, or defensive. If the response is humanitarian relief during an intentional disaster such as terrorism, war, civil war, or riot, defensive protective measures become critical to airport functionality, continuity of business, and continuity of operations. This article examines 18 airports for threats to functionality and appropriate, effective defensive measures against these threats. In a disaster, an airport can substitute for almost anything else, but nothing else can substitute for an airport. This truism becomes particularly acute when the operational stresses of humanitarian relief and intentional threats coincide at an airport. Key words: riot, war, terrorism, civil, airport, disaster, humanitarian, response
Quantitative assessment of building fire risk to life safety
Author: Chu, Guanquan
Risk Analysis, an international journal, Vol.28, No.3, June 2008, pp.615-626.
This article presents a quantitative risk assessment framework for evaluating fire risk to life safety. Fire risk is divided into two parts: probability and corresponding consequence of every fire scenario. The time-dependent event tree technique is used to analyze probable fire scenarios based on the effect of fire protection systems on fire spread and smoke movement. To obtain the variation of occurrence probability with time, Markov chain is combined with a time-dependent event tree for stochastic analysis on the occurrence probability of fire scenarios. To obtain consequences of every fire scenario, some uncertainties are considered in the risk analysis process. When calculating the onset time to untenable conditions, a range of fires are designed based on different fire growth rates, after which uncertainty of onset time to untenable conditions can be characterized by probability distribution. When calculating occupant evacuation time, occupant premovement time is considered as a probability distribution. Consequences of a fire scenario can be evaluated according to probability distribution of evacuation time and onset time of untenable conditions. Then, fire risk to life safety can be evaluated based on occurrence probability and consequences of every fire scenario. To express the risk assessment method in detail, a commercial building is presented as a case study. A discussion compares the assessment result of the case study with fire statistics.
Realising a resilient and sustainable built environment towards a strategic agenda for the United Kingdom
Author: Bosher, Lee
Disasters, the journal of disaster studies, policy and management, Vol.31, No.3, September 2007, pp.236-255.
Recent natural and human-induced emergencies have highlighted the vulnerability of the built environment. Although most emergency events are not entirely unexpected, and the effects can be mitigated, emergency managers in the United Kingdom have not played a sufficiently proactive role in the mitigation of such events. If a resilient and sustainable built environment is to be achieved, emergency management should be more proactive and receive greater input from the stakeholders responsible for the planning, design, construction and operation of the built environment. This paper highlights the need for emergency management to take a more systematic approach to hazard mitigation by integrating more with professions from the construction sector. In particular, design changes may have to be considered, critical infrastructures must be protected, planning policies should be reviewed, and resilient and sustainable agendas adopted by all stakeholders.
Remote sensing-based neural network mapping of tsunami damage in Aceh, Indonesia
Author: Aitkenhead, Matthew J
Disasters, the journal of disaster studies, policy and management, Vol.31, No.3, September 2007, pp.217-226.
In addition to the loss of human life, the tsunami event of 26 December 2004 caused extensive damage to coastal areas. The scale of the disaster was such that remote sensing may be the only way to determine its effects on the landscape. This paper presents the results of a neural network-based mapping of part of the region of Aceh, Sumatra. Before-and-after satellite imagery, combined with a novel neural network methodology, enabled a characterisation of landscape change. The neural network technique used a threshold of acceptance for identification, in combination with a bootstrapped identification method for identifying problem pixels. Map analysis allowed identification of urban areas that were inaccessible by road, and which aid agencies could therefore only reach by air or sea. The methods used provide a rapid and effective mapping ability and would be a useful tool for aid agencies, insurance underwriters and environmental monitoring.
Spain's greatest and most recent mine disaster
Author: Guerrero, Flor Ma.
Disasters, the journal of disaster studies, policy and management, Vol.32, No.1, March 2008, pp.19-40.
On 25 April 1998, the mineral waste retaining wall at the Swedish-owned pyrite mine at Aznalcóllar (Seville, Spain) burst,2 causing the most harmful environmental and socio-economic disaster in the history of the River Guadiamar basin. The damage was so great that the regional government decided in May 1998 to finance a comprehensive, multidisciplinary research initiative with the objective of eradicating or at least minimising all of the negative social, economic and environmental impacts. This paper utilises a Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis to identify eight strategic measures aimed at providing policymakers with key guidelines on implementing a sustainable development model, in a broad sense. Empirical evidence, though, reveals that, to date, major efforts to tackle the negative impacts have centred on environmental concerns and that the socio-economic consequences have not been completely mitigated.
Status of the Lower Sacramento Valley flood-control system within the context of its natural geomorphic setting
Author: Singer, Michael Bliss
Natural Hazards Review, Vol.9, no.3, August 2008, pp.104-115.
The Sacramento River's flood-control system was conceived as a series of weirs and bypasses that routes floods out of the leveed main channel into natural floodways engineered to drain directly into the bay delta. It is occasionally impaired by sedimentation, thus forcing sediment removal, an operation whose longterm effectiveness is unknown.
Still falling short : protection and partnerships in the Lebanon emergency response
Author: Shearer, David
Disasters, the journal of disaster studies, policy and management, Vol.31, No.4, December 2007, pp.336-352.
The Israeli-Hezbollah conflict in the summer of 2006, although brief, had a lasting impact on the region and prompted an intense humanitarian response. The conflict raised challenging questions for the United Nations (UN) about how to assist a middle-income yet extremely vulnerable population in a context where global and local relations are highly politicised. This paper focuses on two key questions that emerged from the humanitarian response. First, how can humanitarian agencies, and particularly the UN, improve the protection of civilians, and was what they did in Lebanon enough? Second, how can humanitarian agencies create partnerships with local actors and still remain true to core humanitarian principles when local actors are fiercely divided along confessional lines and influenced by external actors, and when some, such as Hezbollah, are parties to the conflict? This paper argues that despite the importance of protection and partnerships to the humanitarian response, their role in the UN emergency response still falls short.
Strategic planning for post-disaster temporary housing
Author: Johnson, Cassidy
Disasters, the journal of disaster studies, policy and management, Vol.31, No.4, December 2007, pp.435-458.
Temporary housing programmes suffer from excessively high cost, late delivery, poor location, improper unit designs and other inherent issues. These issues can be attributed in part to a prevalence of ad hoc tactical planning, rather than pre-disaster strategic planning, for reconstruction undertaken by governments and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) in the chaotic post-disaster environment. An analysis of the process and outcomes from six case studies of temporary housing programmes after disasters in Turkey and Colombia in 1999, Japan in 1995, Greece in 1986, Mexico in 1985, and Italy in 1976 yields information about the extent to which strategic planning is employed in temporary housing programmes, as well as common issues in temporary housing. Based on an understanding of these common issues, this paper proposes a framework for strategic planning for temporary housing that identifies organisational designs and available resources for temporary housing before the disaster, but allows modifications to fit the specific post-disaster situation.
The 2004 Madrid train bombings : an analysis of pre-hospital management
Author: Lopez Carresi, Alejandro
Disasters, the journal of disaster studies, policy and management, Vol.32, No.1, March 2008, pp.41-65.
The terrorist train bombings in Madrid, Spain, on 11 March 2004 triggered a swift and massive medical response. 1 This paper analyses the pre-hospital response to the attacks to gain insight into current trends in disaster management among Madrid's Emergency Medical Services (EMSs). To this end, the existing emergency planning framework is described, the basic structures of the different EMSs are presented, and the attacks are briefly depicted before consideration is given to pre-hospital management. Finally, an explanation of the main underlying misconceptions in emergency planning and management in Madrid is provided to aid understanding of the origins of some of the problems detected during the response. These are attributable mainly to inappropriate planning rather than to mistakes in field-level decision-making. By contrast, many of the successes are attributable to individual initiatives by frontline medics who compensated for the lack of clear command by senior managers by making adaptive and flexible decisions.
The application of seismic risk-benefit analysis to land use planning in Taipei City
Author: Hung, Hung-Chih
Disasters, the journal of disaster studies, policy and management, Vol.31, No.3, September 2007, pp.256-276.
In the developing countries of Asia local authorities rarely use risk analysis instruments as a decision-making support mechanism during planning and development procedures. The main purpose of this paper is to provide a methodology to enable planners to undertake such analyses. We illustrate a case study of seismic risk-benefit analysis for the city of Taipei, Taiwan, using available land use maps and surveys as well as a new tool developed by the National Science Council in Taiwan-the HAZ-Taiwan earthquake loss estimation system. We use three hypothetical earthquakes to estimate casualties and total and annualised direct economic losses, and to show their spatial distribution. We also characterise the distribution of vulnerability over the study area using cluster analysis. A risk-benefit ratio is calculated to express the levels of seismic risk attached to alternative land use plans. This paper suggests ways to perform earthquake risk evaluations and the authors intend to assist city planners to evaluate the appropriateness of their planning decisions.
The impact of disasters on small business disaster planning : a case study
Author: Flynn, David T.
Disasters, the journal of disaster studies, policy and management, Vol.31, No.4, December 2007, pp.508-515.
A major flood in 1997 forced the evacuation of Grand Forks, North Dakota and caused damage of USD 1 billion. Despite this recent disaster there is only marginal evidence of an increase in disaster recovery planning by businesses that experienced the flood. This finding is consistent with the results of other business-related disaster research. Statistical tests of survey results from 2003 indicate that there is a significantly higher rate of disaster recovery planning in businesses started since the 1997 flood than in businesses started before the flood and still in business. Such an outcome indicates a need for public policy actions emphasizing the importance of disaster planning. Improved disaster planning is an aid to business recovery and the results demonstrate the need for more widespread efforts to improve disaster recovery planning on the part of smaller businesses, even in areas that have recently experienced disasters.
The impact of the 2004 tsunami on coastal Thai communities : assessing adaptive capacity
Author: Paton, Douglas
Disasters, the journal of disaster studies, policy and management, Vol.32, No.1, March 2008, pp.106-119
The suddenness and scale of the 26 December 2004 tsunami and the challenges posed to affected communities highlighted the benefits of their members having a capacity to confront and adapt to the consequences of such a disaster. Research into adaptive capacity or resilience has been conducted almost exclusively with Western populations. This paper describes an exploratory study of the potential of a measure of collective efficacy developed for Western populations to predict the capacity of members of a collective society, Thai citizens affected by the 2004 tsunami, to confront effectively the recovery demands associated with this disaster. Following a demonstration that this measure could predict adaptive capacity, the role of religious affiliation, ethnicity and place of residence in sustaining collective efficacy is discussed. The implications of the findings for future research on, and intervention to develop, adaptive capacity among Thai citizens in particular and collectivist societies in general are discussed.
The significance of a small, level-3 'semi evacuation' hospital in a terrorist attack in a nearby town
Author: Pinkert, Moshe
Disasters, the journal of disaster studies, policy and management, Vol.31, No.3, September 2007, pp.227-235.
Terrorist attacks can occur in remote areas causing mass-casualty incidents MCIs far away from level-1 trauma centres. This study draws lessons from an MCI pertaining to the management of primary and secondary evacuation and the operational mode practiced. Data was collected from formal debriefings during and after the event, and the medical response, interactions and main outcomes analysed using Disastrous Incidents Systematic Analysis through Components, Interactions and Results (DISAST-CIR) methodology. A total of 112 people were evacuated from the scene-66 to the nearby level 3 Laniado hospital, including the eight critically and severely injured patients. Laniado hospital was instructed to act as an evacuation hospital but the flow of patients ended rapidly and it was decided to admit moderately injured victims. We introduce a novel concept of a 'semi-evacuation hospital'. This mode of operation should be selected for small-scale events in which the evacuation hospital has hospitalization capacity and is not geographically isolated. We suggest that level-3 hospitals in remote areas should be prepared and drilled to work in semi-evacuation mode during MCIs.
The strength of networks : the local NGO response to the tsunami in India
Author: Kilby, Patrick
Disasters, the journal of disaster studies, policy and management, Vol.32, No.1, March 2008, pp.120-130.
This paper examines the role played by a network of 12 local non-governmental organisations (NGOs)-the East Coast Development Forum (ECDF)-in the response to the Indian Ocean tsunami ('Asian tsunami') of 26 December 2004, which devastated the east coast of India. It examines how the ECDF sought to meet the needs of affected people through a direct relief programme, a rehabilitation programme focused on the restoration of livelihoods, and through advocacy to press for changes to government programmes to make them inclusive and to ensure that they satisfy the priority needs of the people most affected. The paper concludes that it was the trust and capacity built up through past network activities of the fisher, dalit, and tribal communities that enabled the ECDF to launch an effective response to the tsunami. A lesson to emerge is that the use of similar existing networks could be employed in other disaster responses around the world.
Trust among decision makers and its consequences in emergency response operations
Author: Uhr, Christian
Journal of Emergency Management, Vol.6, No.3, May/June 2008, pp.21-37.
In an emergency response operation, trust can have an influence on the efficiency in communication between different decision makers and how the networks of these decision makers are formed. Consequently, it might affect the efficiency, flexibility, and adaptation capability in the response system as a whole. Trust could generally be described as a relation between a trustor and a trustee where the expected behavior and competence of the trustee in a specific context, estimated by the trustor, is a central core in the concept. On the basis of a literature review and interviews with Australian emergency response practitioners, this article discusses relevant characteristics of trust and its consequences in emergency response. The content emphasizes the need for further development of descriptive analysis of the processes underlying the formal charts and documents to understand authentic conditions and further develop valid normative theories for emergency response management. Key words: trust, emergency response, crisis response, defining trust, consequences of trust.
Urbanisation and flood vulnerability in the peri-urban interface of Mexico City
Author: Aragon-Durand, Fernando
Disasters, the journal of disaster studies, policy and management, Vol.31, No.4, December 2007, pp.477-499.
Chronic flooding in the Chalco valley, state of Mexico, Mexico, is the outcome of past and present socio-environmental changes which have taken place in Mexico City's south-eastern peri-urban interface. This flooding is the result of a complex interaction between urbanisation in an ex-lacustrine area, permanent ecological deterioration and ground subsidence, poor sanitation and inadequate policy responses. Far from solving the flooding problem, short-term policy responses have created increasingly unsafe conditions for current residents. A socio-historical analysis of disasters reveals the importance of taking into consideration particular social actors and institutions in hazard generation and flood vulnerability over time. This paper analyses three aspects of this flooding: first, the importance of approaching floods from a socio-historical perspective; second, the relation between urbanisation, former policies and flood risk generation; and third, current policy responses to and the failure in the risk management of La Compañía Canal.
Using evaluation theory to augment the Homeland Security Exercise and Evaluation Program (HSEEP) guidance for evaluating operations-based exercises
Author: Renger, Ralph
Journal of Emergency Management, Vol.6, No.3, May/June 2008, pp.45-52.
Exercises play a crucial role in better preparing for, responding to, and recovering from an emergency by providing opportunities for responders and officials to practice and assess their collective capabilities. Conducting a thorough evaluation of these exercises is critical to ensuring that the nation continually improves its ability to save lives and property. A major emphasis of the Homeland Security Exercise and Evaluation Program (HSEEP) is on defining and evaluating capability- based objectives to determine the impact of an exercise. Using the integrated theory of evaluation, it is shown how a cost-effective, quality evaluation of operations- based exercises can be conducted while simultaneously not interfering or adding to the burden of exercise players, controllers, or evaluators. It is hoped that this article will act as a catalyst in moving HSEEP to recognize the potential of other sources of information to assist in conducting a more comprehensive evaluation and amend their guidelines accordingly. Key words: evaluating, HSEEP, operations-based, exercises, theory.